As much as I’d prefer to focus on teaching and learning, it seems that coronavirus (COVID-19) is the proverbial elephant in the room. To not talk about the virus sweeping through our world seems as silly as talking about it exclusively. Don’t panic. Check. Don’t ignore it. Check.
Let me start by saying I will attempt to take a reasonable position here. Those who are suggesting that the ensuing pandemic is a “hoax” or that reports are somehow politically motivated are likely trying to persuade you of something nefarious. While it is likely true that CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, and other “news ticker” programs genuinely love this kind of fear-factor as it boosts ratings and keeps eyeballs hooked, most are not concocting news. They are simply over-exaggerating some stories or speaking about it ad-naseum. But to say “hoax” is disingenuous. Other countries do not care about our political system, yet they are taking serious and sometimes severe measures regarding this virus. (Heck, all of Italy is now on lock down.) The world knows this is not a hoax.
At the same time, while I follow the news as you all do, I will try not to “pile on” our various providers and government officials here. While I am struggling to understand some talking points and some decisions (like not taking the offered test kits from the World Health Organization because we wanted to create our own, meaning we would not have enough test kits for weeks / months), I will try to keep this at the higher ed level only.
So, what will this issue mean for higher ed?
First, do you remember the early 2000’s when everyone said that online learning was going to revolutionize or possibly disrupt higher ed to the point that schools would close? Well, we certainly saw that turn in another direction. But, the infrastructure that many schools embraced for eLearning since that time might just turn out to be a saving grace today, no?
We are already seeing some US universities follow the lead of other countries in closing physical locations and using distance education tools to ensure learning is not disrupted. I try not to “cross the streams” too often with IICE and my other position as CAO at Campus, but you might check out a blog I wrote about using a “digital campus” or “virtual campus” to ensure that everything beyond the LMS sees no disruptions.
So, it is fair to say that some schools will shut their physical doors to help stop the spread of the disease and to keep their people safe. But of course that means some schools will have to make harder choices. Why? Because they never embraced eLearning in the first place.
Some schools directly opposed the entire notion of distance education. I think of a college close to home (for me). Colorado College in Colorado Springs made a unilateral policy, suggesting they will not embrace online learning. The school even frowns on some credit transfers (like foreign languages), if the class was taken online. (CC uses a block schedule of instruction seeing students take 1 class at a time in a hyper-intensive but very short period.) So, just as the school has largely ignored a great deal of brain science and learning research suggesting their scheduling does not promote learning, they are now also facing some tough choices with regard to safety and health due to the oppositional nature of an eLearning agenda.
But for most, it is not quite as cut and dry as this. After all, 90%+ of US colleges and universities have some form of eLearning at their institutions. But for many, it is not nearly ubiquitous enough to matter. I think back to my time at Saint Leo. At an institution that was an early adopter of online learning, it was a massive, multi-year effort to ensure that every class offered by the school, regardless of base modality, had a course shell in the LMS. We were finally able to make it happen (although there were still some holdouts who did not put the required syllabus and contact information into that shell) but it took a lot of work and a lot of time. So, I cannot imagine what it will be like for other schools to suddenly need their faculty, many of whom are not trained in eLearning management and perhaps even outwardly disdained the medium, to embrace eLearning. What will it be like to get them a course shell and also see them use it to teach part (or maybe the rest) of the term, and do it effectively? (How many terms did it take you to learn how to teach online in an effective manner?)
I then think about timing. As I posted in the other blog referred to above, the NCAA is considering cancelling live attendance of March Madness, SXSWedu is cancelled, and many other cross-state events are scrubbed this year. As a result, will we see schools struggle to keep sports programs going next year? What will that do to Higher Ed functions? What about graduation, for example? What about school orientation next Fall? Perhaps the most obvious hit will come to Study-Abroad programs, although we may see a surge in medical aid trips. But massed events could become quite problematic.
Next Fall becomes an interesting issue too. Many health experts agree that coronavirus will likely see a falling off in the warmer months. Either the rate of infection will slow down (even though more raw numbers of people will emerge as sick) OR people will have lesser symptoms. However, those same experts agree that as bad as things are this Spring, they will be much worse once the temperatures drop again next Fall/Winter. So what will a resurgence in viral activity do to this sector? Will we see a surge of online learning in this country and around the world? Will we see students simply take a gap year and let this disease run its course, giving governments and officials time to create vaccinations (an 18-24-month process, typically)? I mean, it will go away eventually. We don’t really hear about SARS or Bird Flu anymore, after all. Or, as the disease seems to be far worse for older people, will we see traditional-aged college students once again grow in overall percentage?
More Questions Than Answers
I realize these questions and dozens more will be handled by executive teams at every institution differently. But at the end of the day, schools have a few common problems to really worry about. Will they get new students, will they keep existing students, and will they help graduates get jobs? This virus may disrupt all three of those over-arching goals for colleges and universities. And all of it comes at a price.
Fewer enrollments and low retention rates can see schools cutting budgets, ultimately needing to put people on leave or let them go entirely. Poor graduation to career numbers could see oversight groups and government intervention where it is not desired. The lack of remote infrastructure could see a year or two of very low learning outcomes as some professors will not embrace or effectively utilize the medium and/or as students struggle with a medium that is not their desired format.
Time will tell as to what happens globally, locally, and across higher education, but there are answers to all of these questions. Some will come out as winners and likely others will lose in their decisions, which could have serious consequences for their institutions. Regardless, I hope this blog acted as a primer for a question or two you had not considered, but mostly I hope you all stay safe, stay healthy, and make the best possible decisions you can during this time by looking at all possible options from both inside and outside your organization(s). As always, if the Institute can help, we’re just an email away.
Good luck and good learning.