One of the perks of my job is being able to meet so many smart, interesting people. Yesterday proved to be no exception.
I was asked to come to LSU to speak at their second (Fierce) Innovation Conference. The invitation alone is an honor, because if you aren’t familiar with what LSU is doing in the online space, you likely soon will be. It all starts with someone quite well known in innovation as well as eLearning circles: Sasha Thackaberry. Sasha made an incredible splash at SNHU, but now is bringing her transformative style to the flagship institution in Louisiana and so my invitation was definitely an honor. It’s always amazing to be asked to convey ideas to a group lead by someone who has some of the best, smartest ideas around.
Dr. Michael Moore
But in addition to my interactions with Sasha, it was also a pleasure to present on a panel with, and hear speak in his own plenary session, Dr. Michael Moore. A mover and shaker in his own right, Michael has made an impact as the CAO in various places, but he currently holds that same position with the University of Arkansas system. And as he presented some incredibly sobering concepts and facts with the audience, U of A is lucky to have such a dynamic and savvy leader. As higher ed moves into some trying times, schools are going to need the best possible leadership they can get!
When asked to speak about change, threats to the sector, and other pressures higher ed is and will continue to find itself under, Dr. Moore leveraged a hurricane framework to drive his points home. In Baton Rouge, that particular metaphor may have more connection than in other places, but the overall affect was powerful, even to this Denver resident.
The news was not necessarily new to me, although it was to some in the crowd, but the aggregate data throughout the presentation and his contextualization were. I’ve reported through this blog that things like traditional aged college students (both in raw numbers as well as in percentage) are declining and will continue to do so through at least 2026. However, Michael did a good job relaying some nuance to those numbers. Not every state will see the same level of decline, nor will every institution type.
Those hit the hardest will likely be community colleges, state universities, and some private institutions. At the same time, the south will struggle more than the north, just as more eastern schools will struggle above western ones.
But at the same time, Dr. Moore showed some powerful indicators of success, potentially able to help institutions rise above the coming storm. He illustrated the growth in online programs and online institutions, many forming a genuine hockey stick in the data, whereas traditional, face-to-face growth has remained stagnant for years. At the same time, costs have risen far more for on-ground contexts than for online ones.
Then there was the discussion of closings and mergers. Again, some schools (Ivy leagues, etc) will likely never have to worry about shutting down, but for others, the harsh reality is that they are already on life support. Illustrations of states who have bailed out institutions with loans, mergers seeing large schools enveloping failing small ones, and mission driven universities finding their models and constituencies unsustainable were on display. And this trend is likely to speed up, not slow down, at least for the next decade or so.
Of course, as sobering as all of this information was, there were some lifesavers thrown out. From smart program offerings to providing genuine “best in class” or unique offerings, there are ways to marginalize the struggles on the horizon. (And in this case ‘best in class’ is not the lip service thrown around by every college President in the land, but instead means best and measurable.)
Higher education is about to see some of the greatest external pressures it has ever faced and leadership is going to be the key to surviving, if not potentially thriving. It will take a firm grasp of both the economic and cultural realities, but also of lessons learned in the past decade such as better connections to the business world, holistic student success models (vs cognitive alone), and creative program management.
So, like any hurricane, we will see some ships lost and some homes damaged, but with strong governance, we can save plenty of boats and ensure minimal damage to our coasts. Luckily higher education has some really great people…really smart people to help us ride out this storm.
Good luck and good learning.